28 research outputs found
How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects? The Case of Transportation
This article presents results from the first statistically significant study
of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used
is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$59
billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance that
forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation
infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and
economic risks. Such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and
decision makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. For nine out
of ten rail projects passenger forecasts are overestimated; average
overestimation is 106 percent. This results in large benefit shortfalls for
rail projects. For half of all road projects the difference between actual and
forecasted traffic is more than plus/minus 20 percent. Forecasts have not
become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills
for arriving at accurate demand forecasts have improved over time, as often
claimed by forecasters, this does not show in the data. The causes of
inaccuracy in forecasts are different for rail and road projects, with
political causes playing a larger role for rail than for road. The cure is
transparency, accountability, and new forecasting methods. The challenge is to
change the governance structures for forecasting and project development. The
article shows how planners may help achieve this.Comment: arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1302.2544, arXiv:1303.6571,
arXiv:1302.364
ARIA 2016 : Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle
The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA-disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally-is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease.Peer reviewe